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Good morning. As expected a choppy, flat, hard to trade day yesterday.The level for the long didn’t quite reach, though the short at 6812 managed to get a few points. Its going to continue to be a bit topsy turvy till the vote result. If you wanted a week off this is probably a good one to take! We are slightly above todays pivot now, so in theory that will act as support, though the bulls still need to break 6820, though the top of the 10 day Bianca is now only at 6832. Another flattish day coming up, with most traders keeping their powder dry pre vote I expect.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with the regional index headed for its longest losing streak in more than a decade, the dollar weakened against most major peers and government bonds climbed before the Federal Reserve reviews interest rates. Metals rebounded.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) fell 0.1 percent by 1:03 p.m. in Tokyo, falling a ninth day. Nasdaq 100 Index futures were little changed after the U.S. gauge of technology stocks sank 1 percent in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.1 percent, with the currencies of Japan and South Koreastrengthening. Ten-year Australian notes rose for the first time in six days as the yield on 10-year Treasuries slipped two basis points. Gold and nickel rose at least 0.3 percent.

Fed officials meet to review policy from today, with an unexpected decline in American factory output tempering speculation that the timeline for interest-rate increases could be brought forward. Morning trading in Hong Kong was canceled because of a typhoon, while Australia’s central bank said it will monitor risks from rising property prices as policy makers reiterated a period of stability in record-low interest rates.

“The big issue is whether the Fed will change its forward guidance to indicate they are getting closer to the decision on putting interest rates up,” Stephen Halmarick, head of investment markets research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management, which oversees about A$170 billion ($154 billion), said by phone from Sydney. “The transition period as the Fed tightens will be difficult for markets in the Asian region. I think we are in for a few months of increased volatility in markets.”

Loss Streak
Nine of the 10 industry groups on the Asia-Pacific equity gauge retreated as the measure heads for its longest run of daily declines since June 2002. About two stocks dropped for each that advanced.

Japan’s Topix index declined 0.3 percent, snapping a five-day advance, while theKospi gauge in Seoul added 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent.

Trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will start at 1 p.m. local time after the morning session was scrapped due to Typhoon Kalmaegi, according to a statement on the exchange group’s website. The city’s third-highest storm signal was issued for the first time this year earlier today. Markets in Malaysia are closed for a holiday.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises gauges dropped 0.2 percent in most recent trading. The Shanghai Composite Index was little changed.

US Interest Rates
The U.S. central bank has been saying since March that interest rates would stay low for a “considerable time” after it completes the asset purchases known as quantitative easing. Speculation the Fed may bring forward rate increases has boosted the allure of the dollar this month and depressed Treasuries.

U.S. factory production fell 0.1 percent in August from July, when it grew 0.4 percent, data yesterday showed. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted an increase of 0.3 percent.

The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1 percent to a one-month low, while the Russell 2000tumbled 1.2 percent, the most since July 31, bringing its retreat in 2014 to 1.5 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ended the U.S. day down 0.1 percent, with technology shares leading declines with a 0.6 percent drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3 percent as energy shares rebounded.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Yesterday saw a bit of weak bull and I expect that we will see the same today. The daily pivot is 6797 so we have support there, and the bulls will need to break 6820, the most recent high, to push on to the top of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6832. I expect that we may see a dip there, probably down to the pivot. Generally its all treading water prior to the vote so not really the best trading conditions. Above 6832 we have the next resistance at 6864. Don’t think it will be bullish enough to reach that level though as it will also need to break 6850 where we have the top of the 10 day Raff!

Support wise, below the pivot we have the bottom of the 20 day Bianca at 6789 and the 10 day at 6766. I expect that the 20 day will hold if tested.

Generally I am thinking a rise then a dip today, but again, limited downside and a slow drift up.

Good morning, I hope you had a good weekend. The FTSE continues to be rather jumpy and will be all week int he run up to the Scottish vote not he 18th. Polls are neck and neck still, with the lead chopping and changing – a bit like sentiment for the FTSE and USD/GBP. Short, long, no short, no long etc! Sunday evenings open saw a dip down to 6755 but then a little climb back to just below Fridays support (6786) at 6783. Friday was a bit of a slow one – bulls never managed to break that 6818 despite a few goes, while the 6786 support was virtually tested after hours, but not by enough for the long to trigger (I had removed the order by then anyway), and did bounce back to 6800. I expect its going to be jumpy all week, as will Sweden after the krona weakened 0.4 percent to 9.2704 per euro today. The three-party Social Democratic opposition bloc won 43.6 percent of the vote in an election, versus 39.5 percent for the government’s coalition, with 97 percent of ballots counted. The Social Democrats must now garner support from other parties to form a majority.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell with U.S. equity-index futures, Australia’s dollar weakened to a more-than five-month low and copper slid after Chinese factory and retail data added to evidence a slowdown is deepening. Brent crude oil dropped to a two-year low.

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 1 percent by 1:11 p.m. in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng ChinaEnterprises Index dropped 1.5 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 0.4 percent after the U.S. gauge dropped 0.6 percent Sept. 12. The Aussie retreated a sixth day while Indonesia’s rupiah weakened to a two-month low versus the dollar. Crude in London and New Yorksank at least 0.6 percent. Copper fell 0.9 percent. Sweden’s krona weakened as the country faced a hung parliament. Gold climbed from an eight-month low.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc cut its 2014 estimate for Chinese economic expansion to 7.2 percent from 7.6 percent after August industrial output growth was the weakest since the global financial crisis. Factory data is due in the U.S., where the fastest increase in retail sales in four months bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will signal a move toward interest-rate increases at a meeting this week. The Bank for International Settlements warned international borrowing and low volatility are increasing risk for emerging-market assets.

“The Chinese data was not ideal at all,” said Mao Sheng, an analyst at Huaxi Securities Co. in Chengdu. “If the Fed were to raise rates earlier than expected, that wouldn’t be good for Asia stocks as there will be an outflow of funds to the U.S.”

All 10 industry groups on the Asia Pacific excluding Japan stocks gauge fell today, led by energy and financial companies. Japanese markets are closed today for Respect for the Aged Day.

Hang Seng
The gauge of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, which fell the most since March last week, is heading for its lowest close in more than a month. The Hang Seng Index dropped 0.8 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.1 percent.

Factory production in China rose 6.9 percent in August from a year earlier, the statistics office reported Sept. 13, down from 9 percent in July and below the 8.8 percent growth predicted by economists. It was the slowest pace outside the Lunar New Year holiday period of January and February since December 2008. Growth in fixed-asset investment slowed to 16.5 percent, while retail sales expanded 11.9 percent, trailing the 12.1 percent rate estimate and easing from 12.2 percent in July.

Reports last week showed a second straight monthly decline in imports and a 40 percent drop in the broadest measure of new credit. Growth in gross domestic product may ease to between 6.5 percent and 7 percent in the third quarter should data for September also be weak, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

Fed Meeting
The Fed, which meets Sept. 16-17, is considering the timing of rate increases and whether to revamp its public guidance on the path of rates. The central bank has said since March thatinterest rates would stay low for a “considerable time” after it completes a monthly bond-buying program that’s on track to end this year.

Sales at U.S. retailers climbed 0.6 percent in August, the fastest pace in four months, while another report showed consumer confidence rose more than estimated.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Its going to be pretty confusing this week, mainly on reactions to polls, sentiment etc. With the S&P well off from its 2012 now, i expect a bounce as that is just hitting its 20 day support, as are the FTSE and Dax with the 20 day Raff, along with the 10 day Bianca at 6772. Basically I think early this week will see some bull, then a lot of jitters come Thursday. friday depends entirely on the result – Yes vote bad, No vote good - but we shall see. Watching the S&P we should see a climb bcd to 1997/2000 then a dip again. For today, 6786 has been broken so the next support is 6772 (bottom of the 10 day Bianca) but with last night move to 55, I think we may dip down to 6760. As such a small long there to target 6800 could be a good play, as we also have the 20 day Raff at 6755. Its pretty confusing, but if that breaks then I expect a dip towards 6700.

On the flip side, if the bulls break the pivot then 6820 is next resistance with 6830 and 6864 above that.

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