Well yesterday I would say bears 1, bulls 1 – despite the spikes it felt like there might be a few tentative bears sticking their heads above the parapet. These recent rises and bullishness have really kicked the shorter term trend up – check out the 10 day on the Bianca chart below. Its worth zooming out and looking at the EMA’s on the longer time frames though to give you a sense of where this is going, and interesting the EMA’s are levelling off on the 4 hour, and have crossed to bear on the hourly (first bearishness since 2nd August). Safezone on hourly is above actual price. We had a decent close level yesterday, mainly as the market spiked higher just before the divi adjustment to close at 5848. That was people going long to get the divi. We might see that level tested today. Greece’s ratings has been cut again though on a worsening outlook, but having little adverse effect this time – ECB to the rescue so nothing to worry about, any country with any issue, we’ll just print some money and bail you out! that seems to be what is holding this up at the moment following Draghi’s comments a while back when the market was falling.
Asia Overnight
Most Asian stocks advanced amid speculation central banks will take steps to support economic growth. Japanese 10-year yields climbed to the highest level in one month as oil and metals declined.
The MSCI Asia Pacific (MXAP) Index gained 0.2 percent as of 2:12 p.m. in Tokyo in its third day of gains, rising off three-month highs. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 0.2 percent after the underlying gauge closed at the highest level since May 2. Oil dropped 0.5 percent to $93.19 a barrel in New York, while aluminum, zinc and copper in London slid at least 0.6 percent. Japan’s 10-year yields rose three basis points to 0.81 percent, the highest since July 5.
Outlook & Plan
We keep testing and breaking the top of the 20 day channel with this rise which confirms that the rise isn’t driven by technicals but by sentiment and the thought of no matter what, politicians will do whatever is required to cure any ills that crop up. Unfortunately, rather than treat the problem, that just treats the symptoms and that is not good – we are back to the tin can being kicked down the road. I could do on but I will focus instead on what and how I am going to trade today. Today’s pivot is 5822 – pretty certain we will see that but I am still feeling a bit bearish as per yesterday. The 10ema on daily needs to be tested I feel, currently at 5744, my analysis from a few weeks back had 5850 as the target area for the longs, price is trying to break below the 10ema on the 4hour, and the hourly is bearish. Will all that culminate in a trend change? Possibly. Therefore I am going to go short at that pivot area again – 5820, with a stop above the recent highs, so quite wide at 5853. The target is 5744 initially, being the daily 10ema, we do also have support at 5765 as you can see below. I have kept the blue arrows simple today to show the general sentiment I have.
bianca trends
ftse 100 trading prediction
FTSE still looking range-bound. My guess is until we take out a swing low of some significance (probably 5784 or 5767) convincingly, the bears may still not have the wind behind their sails. I am short from yesterday, drifting in and out of profit.
We have bounced off the top of the daily and 4 hour channels. I am short again from 20 having closed yesterdays shorts at todays low. Lots of triangles about so we will need a breakout, lower highs and higher lows, 50/50 I’d say but H+S lookk to some lower time frames so I’m short as long as we remain below the 8 ema on the hourly.
its come back to the pivot level.
The 4-hour chart has ‘market fall all over it which probably means it wont happen. I’m short from 5,820 having locked in last night’s short profits similar to Donald.
Markets probably need to retrace in order to move up with momentum but they are incredibly stubborn at the moment. We could quite easily rally north through the 15-min chart triangle and that will be that. All about risk reward as usual.
Its frustrating how little movement there has been this week. I think this consolidation might continue until Friday. Its only after the Olympics end on Sunday would we get to see some movement.
Taken a 5825 short again, which equates to 5850 level before the divs
The market looks overstretched and exhausted after a non-stop spike, IMO even if the uptrend is to continue, today could be a breather…
It’s very clear now – market wants to stay in a range. Might as well go take that nap! (that’s just a ploy – the darn thing always moves when I go take a nap!
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That’s that – stopped out! Time to step back and let the market make up its mind clearly.
its nearing the top of the 20 day channel again
looks like the dow would test 13200 again
phew!!! almost got stopped out there!!!!!
Funny how my broker clipped it to 5850.5 out of hours…i’m sure it was a coincidence. Luckily moved a couple of positions away from that and put them back after LoL – 2 can play at that game.
GOT MYSELF INTO NICE BIG TROUBLE , hopefully we dont hit 5900 !!! please dont , will take a big knock 20 percent on capital. is it possible to hit 5900 then after that go close to 6000 ? before we see 5750 again ? i guess anything is possible , a few good annoucments on how to save the euro and promises !! and bobs your uncle 5950 quick quick !!
I think we ll be range(5788-5850 ish) bound till Friday. Don’t know what will happen next week though.
I think there two possible ways to look at today’s price action :
1)Bullish Angle: The price did not make a lower low.
2)Bearish Angle: The price did not cross yesterday’s high. The bull’s might be running out of steam
I personally favor the bears and am short at 5825. What are your thoughts guys???
Nick, do you still have your short open?? Wondering should i hold it overnight or not. I am short at 5825.
5868 at 06.23 on the back of Chinese data – I think this is heading towards 5939 for a battle between the bulls and bears. Unless the dreaded bad Euro News kicks in first.
I think we have to see solid declines starting as early as next week, failing which i think things will start looking bullish in the Intermediate term.
Trend is your friend
Got stopped out over night. Its bounced off R2 (5875) this morning. Nearing the pivot level at 5828. Might possibly rise from here.