Well, after that initial drop yesterday down to 5645 area we did in fact rise and have just passed 5720 out of hours over night. The trade alert at 5671 came really good, helped by the IMF news which the markets viewed as good. Goldman’s news helped buoy the market too – unfortunately I think whilst short term is bullish still, medium and longer term are definitely bearish. I still think a low in the summer, at the moment. As most people are thinking short the market is going to try and rise to flush out as many bears as possible then drop when they all turn bearish – all just to keep us on our toes!
As you can see we have the 10 day channel top getting closer at 5738 – nearly at the 5750 level mentioned a few weeks ago. Today’s pivot is 5686 (and also 15 minute 200 ema level there, which often acts as support) so any drops may well find support there, especially as we have dropped off (not that massively though) from 5720 area. The bulls will be fighting hard to hold onto these gains I feel, and whilst the 4 hour chart below still has bullish macd, it is levelling off. But, as per yesterday’s analysis of the 15min chart, I would like to see the macd higher above the zero line.
Longer term shorts loaded above 5700 with very wide stops should come good over the next few weeks I would imagine, but I am cautiously expecting us to pop a bit higher yet – certainly the top of the 10 day. As you may know, I prefer my longer term positions to be from around the top or bottom of the 20 day channel but I am not sure that we will see 5850 in the near future – but then the markets do like to surprise! The charts don’t have the auto plotted S&R lines on at the moment, probably due to the bullish action overnight since the close invalidating the formulas. I will email it round when they do reappear.
Generally, we will see resistance at 5720, 5738 (10 day) and 5760. We are at 5700 pretty much for the open (yesterdays close so no gap trades) and the bulls will be fighting to keep those gains. Otherwise it may well be a repeat of yesterday – drop to 5650 then rise. 15min chart MACD is bearish and has just crossed the zero line.